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4. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Dont simply gloss over this. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Outstanding. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Really stop reading. Subscribe to breaking updates "They followed through the whole four years. The divisions were everywhere. 03:30. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Arapahoe County. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. ET. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Voter Demographics (9). Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. . Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. 8. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Election night is going to be information overload. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. They're just facts about the vote. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. 7. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Seriously. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960.